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What are the odds of this happening?

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  #11  
Old 09-12-2002, 09:25 PM
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G. Couch G. Couch is offline
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Don't worry...A good Merlot will make it all seem clear!

I should probably log off now before I really say something silly!
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  #12  
Old 09-13-2002, 09:55 AM
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Ed_L Ed_L is offline
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Greg,

It seems that what you're saying is regardless if you have one chance or two, the odds are the same. Are you using New York math?
After the first drawing, the odds are 1 in 1000 (or 999 or whatever). But that has only changed because the first chance is no longer there. At lease that's my thinking on the matter. Interesting subject. I'd like to hear from a math expert, since I'm not sure. For the record, I didn't do well in any subject in high school.

Ed
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  #13  
Old 09-13-2002, 10:53 AM
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DJ Dubovsky DJ Dubovsky is offline
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According to my husband and son, the odds are the same dispite the fact that out of a possible 365 days it happened on Sept. 11 which just happens to be a very significant day in our lives, and of all the cities in the country, it just happens to be New York where the crisis occured. Maybe I'm just looking at this from the wrong perspective. Merlot sounds good to me Greg.
DJ
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  #14  
Old 09-13-2002, 02:00 PM
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G. Couch G. Couch is offline
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Ed - Here is my totally unscientific thinking- Say you rolled a die twice. On the first roll you have a 1 in 6 chance of getting any particular number. so...you roll a 3. You remove the 3 from the possible numbers for your second roll and you now have a 1 in 5 chance of any possible number.
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  #15  
Old 09-13-2002, 09:50 PM
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That I'll agree with. But I'm still looking through very fuzzy glasses when we're talking about the whole picture.

Ed
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  #16  
Old 09-14-2002, 12:49 PM
dcarr dcarr is offline
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Just to add to the conversation. I play NY's pick 3 and know that those particular numbers have not been drawn since before 9/11/01! Even since we went to 2 drawings per day. I did not play those numbers that day, but I do know about 5 people who did. 4 don't know what to say and 1 couldn't care one way or the other. People often stun me.
Debbie
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  #17  
Old 09-14-2002, 12:49 PM
dcarr dcarr is offline
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Forgot to add this. I, too, think it's fishy. And if it was a rigged situation, then it was in very bad taste.
Debbie
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  #18  
Old 09-27-2002, 02:53 PM
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clausiam clausiam is offline
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The real answer...

Better late than never. Just happened to look at this old thread and as I have a minor in math - mostly forgotten but some probability theory still sticks - I thought I'd post this:

The odds are in fact: 0.001999 or 0.1999% which is very close to 1 in 500 (0.2%) but not quite.

There were 2 drawings, each of them had a 0.001 (1 in 1000) chance of ending with these numbers as everybody agreed on. That means that for these numbers NOT to come out that day both drawings have to "fail" which they each had a 0.999 chance of doing. So the likelihood of both of them "failing" is 0.999*0.999=0.998001. Reversely the chance of at least of them succeeding in getting these numbers is then 1-0.998001 or 0.001999.

Things like this work almost linear in the low end (i.e. a small number of drawings where each has a small likelihood of "succeeding") which is why the 1 in 500 approximation is quite good (1 in a 1000 and then 1 in a 1000 is ALMOST 2 in a 1000, i.e. 1 in 500). However the "ALMOST" becomes important as you add more samples. As someone mentioned doing 1000 drawings would not make it certain that the numbers would come out of course. In fact the likelihood is smaller than you might expect at 1-0.999^1000 ~ 63%.

Sheesh, that was long

/Claus
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  #19  
Old 09-27-2002, 03:18 PM
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Thank you Claus. Now I can sleep again knowing that I was at least in the ballpark.

Ed
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  #20  
Old 09-27-2002, 05:53 PM
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DJ Dubovsky DJ Dubovsky is offline
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Ah yes, when in doubt seek out a mathmatician. Guaranteed to confuse you even more than you were before. Sorry Claus, I actually thought it was an excellent explaination and the fact that it flew right over my head proves that.

I guess it boils down to no matter how bad I want to stick those other elements into the equation it just don't change the facts. I concede to those who know more than I on this subject which just about includes the entire world population.
DJ
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