Salon - - What are the odds of this happening?

DJ Dubovsky · #1 09-12-2002, 10:27 AM

Yesterday being the one year anniversary of 9/11 or 9-1-1 as it's being called just happens to be the Pick 3 Lotto numbers of New Yorks Lottery yesterday. Now, seriously, what are the odds of this? Smells fishy to me. Love to know how many winners there were. Check the facts for yourself here. Just scroll down to New York Evening Numbers of 9-11
DJ

G. Couch · #2 09-12-2002, 03:44 PM

I would say the odds are pretty steep! ...looks pretty fishy to me as well. I bet there are a lot of winners though!

Leah · #3 09-12-2002, 04:12 PM

Well, there are only a thousand possible permutations in the NY three-number draw, and two draws a day, so there was a one in five hundred chance that 9-1-1 would come up in one of Wednesday's two draws.

It just seems more weird than that because everyone's been so focused on the date.

Sorry to come over all prosaic

... Will there really be so many winners? I'd have thought it was verging on the tasteless to pick 9/11 as your lottery numbers... trivialisation and all that. But I guess you never know...

Leah

angue · #4 09-12-2002, 04:37 PM

Tasteless it really is. If the machines had not stop accepting 9-1-1 bets, there could have been more than 15,000 winners. Let's just hope they would contribute some to the 911 funds.

Ed_L · #5 09-12-2002, 04:43 PM

If there happens to be 911 winners, I'll really be scratching my head.

Ed

G. Couch · #6 09-12-2002, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Leah
Well, there are only a thousand possible permutations in the NY three-number draw, and two draws a day, so there was a one in five hundred chance that 9-1-1 would come up in one of Wednesday's two draws.

hmm..right you are! That does not sound as far fetched now...My math is pretty rusty, but wouldn't the second drawing also be a 1 in 1000 chance? ...or 1 in 999 if they can't repeat the first numbers drawn?

Ed_L · #7 09-12-2002, 07:50 PM

I think you're right Greg. But before the first one is drawn, you have 2 chances.

So I think Leah is correct also. (But what do I know?)

I never learned New York math.

Ed

DJ Dubovsky · #8 09-12-2002, 07:53 PM

Yes, but you're only focusing on the odds of drawing 9 1 1 as the numbers. Now add the odds of that number landing on the exact same day as the numbers pulled. That's getting into Probability and Statistics and that's where I think the odds are astronomical. Because you've suddenly added 365 days of the year to that calculation. Does that make sense?
DJ

G. Couch · #9 09-12-2002, 08:17 PM

Ed - The odds of getting any number is going to be 1 in 1000 regardless of what was drawn before...like flipping a coin- if you flip the first time and get heads you still have a 50/50 chance of getting heads the next time...I guess!!?? We need a statistic expert!

What if you had 1000 draws in a single day? Would your odds then be 1 in 1? I guess it would be if you did not allow the same number twice... :

DJ - I'm going to wrap my brain around that one...not that 2 glasses of wine are going to help!

DJ Dubovsky · #10 09-12-2002, 08:22 PM

Yup, I think I'll join you in that wine. This is getting complicated.

On further study, I believe the odds still remain the same. However it was interesting. Oh we forgot to factor in the fact that it was New York also.

DJ

G. Couch · #11 09-12-2002, 08:25 PM

Don't worry...A good Merlot will make it all seem clear!

I should probably log off now before I really say something silly!

Ed_L · #12 09-13-2002, 08:55 AM

Greg,

It seems that what you're saying is regardless if you have one chance or two, the odds are the same. Are you using New York math?

After the first drawing, the odds are 1 in 1000 (or 999 or whatever). But that has only changed because the first chance is no longer there. At lease that's my thinking on the matter. Interesting subject. I'd like to hear from a math expert, since I'm not sure. For the record, I didn't do well in any subject in high school.

Ed

DJ Dubovsky · #13 09-13-2002, 09:53 AM

According to my husband and son, the odds are the same dispite the fact that out of a possible 365 days it happened on Sept. 11 which just happens to be a very significant day in our lives, and of all the cities in the country, it just happens to be New York where the crisis occured. Maybe I'm just looking at this from the wrong perspective.

Merlot sounds good to me Greg.
DJ

G. Couch · #14 09-13-2002, 01:00 PM

Ed - Here is my totally unscientific thinking-

Say you rolled a die twice. On the first roll you have a 1 in 6 chance of getting any particular number. so...you roll a 3. You remove the 3 from the possible numbers for your second roll and you now have a 1 in 5 chance of any possible number.

Ed_L · #15 09-13-2002, 08:50 PM

That I'll agree with.

But I'm still looking through very fuzzy glasses when we're talking about the whole picture.

Ed